Surge Blowback

Below is an email to a friend of mine who’s a proponent of what some call a “successful surge.”

On safer streets in Baghdad, friction infiltrates Sunni patrols — NYT

We’ve been talking about the surge and whether or not it has been successful. There appears to be a double standard in effect since ignoring the actual benchmarks and deadlines seems to be the status quo with proponents of the surge/administration. Today I got an email from the Palin campaign saying that she wants a congressional majority in November that supports the troops and will admit that the surge has been successful. Well, my standard is the benchmarks and the deadlines of those benchmarks, but even moving past that and recognizing the increase of security within parts of the country, we’ll both admit that this is a fragile state. The implementation of Awakening Groups is a key component of the counter-insurgency but seems very susceptible to blowback. So, I wonder what is the definition and timeline for “success” and can that success be overturned into blowback over a period of years?

It’s like dismantling the black panthers and inadvertently creating the crips in response. No longer direct threats to the state, but now a social nuisance/disaster depending on who you ask… something to certainly think about.

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